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Prediction for CME (2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-09T07:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47469/-1
CME Note: [Preliminary] Potential weak CME arrival preceded by current sheet crossing. Characterized by an increase in B_total from 6nT to 8nT, a slight increase in speed, and a decrease in temperature. Rotation in magnetic field components is also observed. Possibly two overlapping CMEs visible to the E in STEREO A COR2 imagery and to the S/SW in GOES CCOR-1 imagery starting at 2026-07-09T07:53Z and 2026-07-09T08:23Z based on STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME(s) is an eruption from the area of Active Region 14485 (S10W34) starting around 2026-07-09T06:56Z to the SW in GOES SUVI 195 with additional eruption signatures to the NW of AR 14485 (S10W34) in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2026-07-09T07:08Z. There is a following eruption starting around 2026-07-09T07:48Z with associated brightening and dimming to the N/NW of the Active Region spanning roughly from W25 to W10 and S00 to S12. An EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 284 following the main eruption with post-eruptive arcades starting around 2026-07-09T08:53Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284. These eruptions are also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304 as well as in SDO/AIA wavelengths following an eclipse.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T02:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

Expected arrival time: 2026-07-12T03:00:00Z

    Arrival time uncertainty: 12


    Estimated peak K: 6

    Peak K uncertainty: 1


    Probability of arrival: 70


    CME start time: 2026-07-09T07:53:00Z

Lead Time: 15.95 hour(s)
Difference: -0.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-11T10:33Z

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